Based on our discussions with the sell-side analysts who publish equity research on Moonpig Group plc (“Moonpig Group”), our understanding of current market consensus is as follows:
FY 2024 (Actuals) | FY 2025 (Consensus) | FY 2026 (Consensus) | |
| Group revenue (£m) | 341.1 | 361.7 | 394.8 |
| Group revenue growth YoY (%) | 6.6% | 6.0% | 9.2% |
| Adjusted EBITDA1 (£m) | 95.5 | 94.1 | 102.4 |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin rate2 (%) | 28.0% | 26.0% | 25.9% |
| Adjusted PBT3 (£m) | 58.2 | 59.6 | 68.0 |
| Adjusted Basic Earnings Per Share4 (p) | 12.7 | 13.0 | 14.8 |
Moonpig Group has identified certain Alternative Performance Measures (“APMs”) that it believes provide additional useful information on the performance of the Group. These APMs are not defined within IFRS and are not intended to substitute or be considered as superior to IFRS measures. Furthermore, these APMs may not necessarily be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies.
The definitions for adjusted measures in the above table are as follows:
1Adjusted EBITDA is profit before taxation, interest, depreciation, amortisation and Adjusting Items.
2Adjusted EBITDA margin is Adjusted EBITDA divided by total revenue.
3Adjusted PBT is profit before taxation and Adjusting Items.
4Adjusted Basic Earnings Per Share ("EPS") is stated before Adjusting Items.
Adjusting Items in FY24 comprised pre-IPO incentive scheme costs and amortisation of intangible assets arising on business combinations (“acquisition amortisation”). Adjusting Items for FY25 and FY26 are expected to relate solely to acquisition amortisation of approximately £8m per year (which is relevant to EBIT, PBT and EPS but not to EBITDA).
Consensus is compiled from financial estimates provided by third-party research analysts. Financial estimates that include material errors in calculation or are out-of-date are excluded. Where an analyst subsequently withdraws coverage, their financial estimates are excluded. Consensus was last updated on 9 July 2024. It is based on the following nine analysts: Berenberg, Canaccord Genuity, Deutsche Numis, HSBC, Jefferies, J.P. Morgan, Panmure Liberum, Peel Hunt and Singer Capital Markets.
The forecasts aggregated within the above have not been prepared by and are not endorsed in any way by Moonpig Group. Moonpig Group has neither verified nor commented on any individual estimates, nor does it intend to do so in the future. Moonpig Group assumes no responsibility to update, revise or otherwise comment on any of the information contained in these forecasts. Financial forecasts are, by definition, forward looking, and are therefore subject to various risks and uncertainties which are subject to change at any time.
Analysts
The following analysts cover Moonpig Group.
- Berenberg - Matthew Abraham
- Canaccord Genuity - Karl Burns
- Deutsche Numis - Alison Lygo
- HSBC - Paul Rossington
- Jefferies - Andrew Wade
- J.P. Morgan - Georgina Johanan
- Panmure Liberum - Anubhav Malhotra
- Peel Hunt - Jonathan Pritchard
- Singer Capital Markets - Carl Diebitsch